Thursday, August 28, 2008

Thursday's Gustav Update

Gustav has gained strength overnight and is on the verge of becoming a hurricane. Those in Jamaica are battening down the hatches as the storm is expected to roll over them today. Computer models have Gustav shifting alittle further to the west. Obviously, the models think the high pressure centered over Florida will hang on for alittle longer before weakening. Last night, it was looking like a Grand Isle, Louisiana landfall; this morning, it looks closer to Houma and New Iberia, Louisiana landfall on Tuesday morning. Gustav looks to slow down once it reaches the coastline which would mean several days of rain for central Mississippi. However, with Mississippi expected to be in the right front quadrant, that puts us at high risk for heavy rain, sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, and possible tornadoes---not the best place to be.

Five day forecasts for hurricanes can be wrong. There is about a 300 mile error for landfall as well as a 25 mile per hour error. Thats alot of breathing room. As things have slightly changed since yesterday, things can change tomorrow.

I am using the montra "prepare, don't scare". So many people were caught off guard when Katrina made her jog west, although we gave viewers a 2 day notice of her landfall along the Mississippi coast. This time, we've been given 5-6 days to prepare. The more you're prepared, the more prepared you'll be to help your neighbors, family members, and those out of state.

One poster asked yesterday how to calm her weather-frightened child. I'll answer that tomorrow in my blog because I'm dealing with the same questions in my house.


Anonymous said...

Hey this is my first time viewing your blog. I received a call from a friend yesterday telling me I needed to look and prepare for this huricane. Then later yesterday afternoon I went to get gas (because I was on empty) and found a line that reminded me of the days after Katrinia. My question in all of this goes back to the sermon I heard Sunday at church. Of how when God's people call out to Him He will hear and answer. I just wonder if the "church" has enough faith to cry out that God will completely disfuse all power from Gustav. I mean He is the one who gives power -- He called the storms for the disciples when they cried out. I am just wondering if God has not given us these "extra" days to see what we will do. Will we simply stock up on water and gasoline and non perishables or will we cry out to Him in faith to completely remove the threat? I believe it can be a category 5 ready to hit land and God can so "no" and it will loose all strength. I am not asking God that it will miss Mississippi I am asking Him to spare all of our land.

Anonymous said...

WOW Barbie...Just found your forcasts blog off Ryans.......Love your view point!!!